The Last Polls Are Out On The Governor's Race.

And here is the breakdown:

The PPP Poll is a favorite of the Democrats and it is the one the Lefty bloggers go to for comfort.  It has Kasich up 49-48.  But, as always, the details are what matters in these things.  And here they are:

This poll has the largest sample of Democrats of any pollster in awhile. According to PPP, 43% of the electorate are Dems, 37% are GOP, and 20% are Independents.

To put that into some perspective, in the year of Obama, 2008, the CNN exit poll showed the Democrat portion of the electorate at just 39%. In other words, PPP's poll says a larger portion of the electorate this year will be Democrats than when they voted for Barack Obama. Somehow, I'm not confident that will be the case this year.

But there was another number in the PPP poll that should greatly worry Democrats. Kasich is up 56-38 among Independents. That's an 18 point advantage.

Among partisans, both are doing well with Strickland getting 87% of Democrats and Kasich getting 90% of Republicans.

Strickland only gets 75% approval from Democrats. That a sitting Governor who has been in office for four years can only gain 75% from his base is stunning. Among Independents, Strickland's approval is in the dumps, coming in at 30%-58%. Comparatively, Kasich's favorables among Independents sit at +7, a net difference of 35 points. That explains the massive margin of Independents favoring Kasich.

Ultimately, this PPP poll with their heavy Democratic sample seems to be a best case scenario for Democrats on Tuesday. And that's not good enough.

Now for the Columbus Dispatch Mail-in Poll:

Party breakdown works out to 42%R, 40%D, 16%I. That seems to be an undersampling of the likely number of Independents, but is likely accurate in the GOP advantage of 2 points. For comparison, in 2006 we saw CNN's exit poll showing a 40D, 37R, 23I breakdown. Considering Blackwell's position in 2006 at the time of the election, it's not surprising that Dems had the turnout advantage. Fortunately, things are a bit different this time around.

Once again, both candidates do well with their partisans, with Kasich winning 89% of GOP voters and Strickland winning 92% of Dems. Once again, we see a Kasich advantage among Independents - winning 49-40.

Strickland is up eight among early voters in the poll. But is that enough? As a percentage, Obama had about an 18 point lead coming out of early voting in 2008 and he only went on to win Ohio 51-47. In other words, Strickland's 8-point lead is not near where it needs to be to hammer down a victory.

Most geographic and age breakdowns are about what you'd expect, but it's the enthusiasm numbers that really stick out.

Voters were asked, compared to previous elections, if they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting, less enthusiastic, or about the same.

Among those more enthusiastic, Kasich voters have a 71-26 advantage. Strickland has a large lead among those who are less enthusiastic or about the same. In other words, if the Strickland machine can get these people to the polls, they may stand a chance. But turnout has to favor Kasich at this point.

In summary, yes, things have definitely tightened and this could go either way. That said, I'm still supremely confident that the incredibly consistent lack of support for Strickland among Independents and the enthusiasm gap is too much for any visit by President Obama to overcome.  Speaking of that visit by Obama, here's a little bit of info on that front.

Today's visit by President Obama and Vice President Biden in support of Ted Strickland was supposed to be the big campaign finale for the Governor.  The event was in the heart of Cleveland and expectations were high.  But they were probably a little disappointed.

According to WKYC, the event drew a crowd of approximately 8,000 in a center that holds 14,000.  In addition, they had hoped to draw so many that provisions were made to have a second event to handle an over-flow crowd.  Nothing of that magnitude happened. 

This was the leader of the free world visiting the city that is ground zero for Democrats in Ohio.  They couldn't even draw a capacity crowd, let alone an over-flow crowd.  I would say this is a pretty good sign Cleveland isn't as energized as Strickland would like it to be.  Perhaps it is because the big dogs in charge of their GOTV operations are in jail!!

Anyway, after these two polls the Real Clear Politics average is 48.8 to 45.8 in favor of Kasich.

Let's ride the wave to victory on Tuesday evening.  My prediction:  Kasich wins 53-47.

Details On The Latest And Last Ohio Poll

The latest Ohio Poll had some interesting changes from the last. Namely, Kasich's lead has shrunk to 2, 49-47.

Here are the good things about the poll:

•Kasich is ahead by four among those most likely to vote.

•The GOP enthusiasm gap is an astounding 12 points.

•Indepedents, while still a much smaller sample than any other polls, showed a net gain of 7 points towards Kasich. Kasich now leads 46-40.

•Kasich won the issue questions:
  ◦He's more likely to bring change by 10 points.
  ◦Will improve the economy by 4 points.
  ◦Lower the unemployment rate by 5 points.
  ◦And Strickland is more likely to raise taxes by 28 points(!).

Here are the bad things about the poll:

•Strickland is creeping up closer to 50. He's still below 45 in the RCP average, but any movement up is obviously not welcomed.

•He's getting slightly more partisan support than Kasich.

•Obviously, this sample included more Democrats than the last, meaning more Democrats are getting engaged.

•Questions about honesty and empathy sided with slightly with Strickland, which isn't much of a surprise considering the tone of his campaign.

Eight days to go and the race is tightening up!  We have enthusiasm on our side.  Let's keep it going.

In Case You Saw That Silly CNN/Time Poll...

Well, we finally have a poll saying what the Democrats wanted it to say.
Which, of course, means it's a bit of an outlier from the other polls we've seen.
The new CNN/Time poll has Strickland up 48/47.

Looking at the crosstabs, Strickland and Kasich are comparable with their partisans. Strickland wins Dems 93-5. Kasich wins GOPers 90-6.  It's the Independent number that proves interesting.  Kasich is winning Independents by a full 9 points, 51-42.  Obviously, if Kasich is winning Independents by this margin then it's clear that Democrats were sampled at a far higher rate than Republicans.

Not surprisingly, Obama is still very unpopular, with his approval rating coming in at 42-53 overall and 33-58 among Independents.  Meanwhile, Lee Fisher is still losing. Bad. In this poll he's 15 points back.

Next Meeting Is This Thursday At 6:00 PM

The main item on the agenda is to make preparations for our Election Night gathering at Headquarters.

Please make plans to attend.

Gary's Prediction On Upcoming Congressional Elections

House of Representatives:  A pickup of 43 seats for the Republicans.

Senate: A pickup of 8 seats for the Republicans.  There is an outside chance that the Republicans could grab up to eleven seats here, but that would take some doing.  The solid picks are Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia.  That's right, West Virginia.  It'll take some effort in Nevada and California and what the heck is going on in Alaska?  If Murkowski is elected as a write-in what would she be considered?  An independent?  And what's the deal between Todd Palin and Joe Miller?

Anyway, I don't necessarily see a majority in the Senate as a good thing for the Republicans.  If we controlled both houses of Congress, it would be too easy for Obama to have a scape goat going into the 2012 presidential campaign.  But eight solid seats would definitely help in blocking a lot of the stupdity that is currently going on.

A Tale Of Two States: And How Real Leadership Works

The Toledo Blade has been running an interesting series the past couple days detailing the large number of factories and jobs that have left northwest Ohio for other states and countries.

Totally going against Strickland's excuse that Ohio is suffering just as other states are suffering, the series discovered that just in the past two years "northwest Ohio lost at least 15 factories with 2,200 employees to other states — including four factories to Indiana."

Speaking of Indiana, while Ohio is getting shallacked, they seem to be doing pretty darn well.

Indiana's unemployment rate in August was a hair higher than Ohio's (10.2 percent in Indiana compared to Ohio's 10.1 percent), but Indiana gained about 40,000 jobs since August, 2009. Ohio gained about 7,300 jobs since August, 2009, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The average salary for manufacturing employees in Ohio was less than in Indiana in 2009 ($43,011 in Ohio, $45,643 in Indiana), but electricity costs (6.19 cents per kilowatt hour for industrial users in Ohio versus 5.71 cents in Indiana) and average worker compensation rates ($3.37 per $100 of payroll in Ohio and $2.22 in Indiana) favor Indiana.

More from the Blade:

In three recent cases of plants closing or massively downsizing in northwest Ohio and shifting work to Indiana, those companies were offered about $4 million in incentives to relocate. Ohio did not make a counteroffer in any of those cases.

Ohio was criticized by mayors whose cities lost those factories for having a complicated, drawn-out process for approving incentives in which outside boards and commissions must study incentive applications before giving the go-ahead.

Interesting fact: This is how Indiana's Department of Development is organized:

The Indiana Economic Development Corporation (IEDC) is the State of Indiana's lead economic development agency. The IEDC was officially established in February 2005 to replace the former Department of Commerce. In order to respond quickly to the needs of businesses, the IEDC operates like a business.

Led by Indiana Secretary of Commerce and IEDC Chief Executive Officer E. Mitchell Roob, Jr., the IEDC is organized as a public private partnership governed by a 12-member board. The IEDC Board of Directors is chaired by Governor Mitch Daniels and reflects the geographic and economic diversity of Indiana. The IEDC focuses its efforts on growing and retaining businesses in Indiana and attracting new business to the State.

Sound familiar?

Yep. It seems to very much reflect John Kasich's idea to privatize Ohio's Department of Development.

Works pretty well, eh? Looks that way according to the people that matter - business owners and developers.

But what was most shocking?

Strickland and Fisher both recognized that they weren't "faster or more efficient" than Ohio's competition.

And what have they promised to do about it?

Meh. Nothing.

He was given a perfect opportunity by the Blade to highlight new efforts to fix the process and what did he respond with?

“I don't pretend to have solved all the problems,” Governor Strickland said. “But I do think that even in the most difficult economic circumstances, challenges unlike anything we've experienced in many, many decades, my administration has worked to lay a solid foundation for future growth going forward.”

Once again he blames the recession. The same recession Indiana and every other state that is taking Ohio jobs has suffered from.

Indiana and many other states found a way. Why can't Ted and Lee? And even more frustrating, why do they seem so damned ok with it?

The status quo is good enough for Strickland and Fisher.

Is that good enough for the 600,000 out of work Ohioans?
 
HT: 3BP

Strickland Loses It Again!

In the second instance of Ted Strickland going unhinged in just two weeks, it seems the Governor went a little nuts in today's editorial board meeting at the Plain Dealer.

Strickland acted especially bothered by Kasich on Thursday as the two former congressmen appeared together before Plain Dealer editors and reporters seeking the paper's endorsement. He mixed in contempt for Kasich with his responses to questions about tax, education and economic policies.

During the nearly two-hour meeting, the governor rubbed his fist on his thigh, moved frequently in his chair and even pointed at his opponent. Kasich repeatedly clicked a retractable pen, frequently looked at the ceiling and shifted in his chair.

Strickland became agitated during an exchange about Kasich's proposal to give business executives more say over the Third Frontier, Ohio's investment program for cutting-edge technologies largely run by universities. Tapping the table with his finger, Strickland tried to interrupt Kasich, which allowed Kasich to accuse the governor of losing his cool.

"Governor, you need to stay calm," Kasich said.

[...]

Strickland, his voice quickening and raising, continued, saying the problem was the result of "the shenanigans on Wall Street and you were there and you were a part of that."

Now, to be fair, the article does mention some irritation and dismissiveness from Kasich, but as the Plain Dealer states, it was Strickland who seemed "especially bothered".

In light of his Party Chairman's remarks earlier this week and the awful publicity the Governor received for his labor day rant, you'd think he'd play the part of the relaxed preacher. Apparently the pressure cooker and the intense scrutiny that comes with losing what Joe Biden called the "most important Governor's race in the nation" has left Strickland irritated to the point of losing control.

That isn't the image that will assuage worried Party leaders in Washington.
 
HT:3BP