The Last Polls Are Out On The Governor's Race.

And here is the breakdown:

The PPP Poll is a favorite of the Democrats and it is the one the Lefty bloggers go to for comfort.  It has Kasich up 49-48.  But, as always, the details are what matters in these things.  And here they are:

This poll has the largest sample of Democrats of any pollster in awhile. According to PPP, 43% of the electorate are Dems, 37% are GOP, and 20% are Independents.

To put that into some perspective, in the year of Obama, 2008, the CNN exit poll showed the Democrat portion of the electorate at just 39%. In other words, PPP's poll says a larger portion of the electorate this year will be Democrats than when they voted for Barack Obama. Somehow, I'm not confident that will be the case this year.

But there was another number in the PPP poll that should greatly worry Democrats. Kasich is up 56-38 among Independents. That's an 18 point advantage.

Among partisans, both are doing well with Strickland getting 87% of Democrats and Kasich getting 90% of Republicans.

Strickland only gets 75% approval from Democrats. That a sitting Governor who has been in office for four years can only gain 75% from his base is stunning. Among Independents, Strickland's approval is in the dumps, coming in at 30%-58%. Comparatively, Kasich's favorables among Independents sit at +7, a net difference of 35 points. That explains the massive margin of Independents favoring Kasich.

Ultimately, this PPP poll with their heavy Democratic sample seems to be a best case scenario for Democrats on Tuesday. And that's not good enough.

Now for the Columbus Dispatch Mail-in Poll:

Party breakdown works out to 42%R, 40%D, 16%I. That seems to be an undersampling of the likely number of Independents, but is likely accurate in the GOP advantage of 2 points. For comparison, in 2006 we saw CNN's exit poll showing a 40D, 37R, 23I breakdown. Considering Blackwell's position in 2006 at the time of the election, it's not surprising that Dems had the turnout advantage. Fortunately, things are a bit different this time around.

Once again, both candidates do well with their partisans, with Kasich winning 89% of GOP voters and Strickland winning 92% of Dems. Once again, we see a Kasich advantage among Independents - winning 49-40.

Strickland is up eight among early voters in the poll. But is that enough? As a percentage, Obama had about an 18 point lead coming out of early voting in 2008 and he only went on to win Ohio 51-47. In other words, Strickland's 8-point lead is not near where it needs to be to hammer down a victory.

Most geographic and age breakdowns are about what you'd expect, but it's the enthusiasm numbers that really stick out.

Voters were asked, compared to previous elections, if they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting, less enthusiastic, or about the same.

Among those more enthusiastic, Kasich voters have a 71-26 advantage. Strickland has a large lead among those who are less enthusiastic or about the same. In other words, if the Strickland machine can get these people to the polls, they may stand a chance. But turnout has to favor Kasich at this point.

In summary, yes, things have definitely tightened and this could go either way. That said, I'm still supremely confident that the incredibly consistent lack of support for Strickland among Independents and the enthusiasm gap is too much for any visit by President Obama to overcome.  Speaking of that visit by Obama, here's a little bit of info on that front.

Today's visit by President Obama and Vice President Biden in support of Ted Strickland was supposed to be the big campaign finale for the Governor.  The event was in the heart of Cleveland and expectations were high.  But they were probably a little disappointed.

According to WKYC, the event drew a crowd of approximately 8,000 in a center that holds 14,000.  In addition, they had hoped to draw so many that provisions were made to have a second event to handle an over-flow crowd.  Nothing of that magnitude happened. 

This was the leader of the free world visiting the city that is ground zero for Democrats in Ohio.  They couldn't even draw a capacity crowd, let alone an over-flow crowd.  I would say this is a pretty good sign Cleveland isn't as energized as Strickland would like it to be.  Perhaps it is because the big dogs in charge of their GOTV operations are in jail!!

Anyway, after these two polls the Real Clear Politics average is 48.8 to 45.8 in favor of Kasich.

Let's ride the wave to victory on Tuesday evening.  My prediction:  Kasich wins 53-47.